Awaiting the Irish Vote

Government ministers, members of parliament and workers from the main political parties have been going all out to try and persuade voters not to derail the progress of European Union Enlargement by rejecting the Nice Treaty in Saturday’s referendum.

Given the opinion polls, which put the “yes” vote comfortably ahead, one could be forgiven for wondering why all the jitters?

The reason why everyone is so nervous is that it’s the second time the referendum has been held – and last year, the vote was “no.” That setback threw EU plans to admit 10 new members, mostly formerly communist countries from Central and Eastern Europe, into complete confusion.

The Irish hold the key to EU enlargement

Ireland is the only EU country which is constitutionally obliged to hold a referendum on enlargement. If the Irish vote “no” again this time, the Nice Treaty, which has been ratified by all the other member states, will expire at the end of the year.

Embarrassed by the last dismal result in a country that has reaped huge rewards from EU membership, the government and treaty backers are determined the second vote should go their way.

The influential Irish Times said on Friday that another "no" vote "would throw EU enlargement into crisis" and urged any readers in favor of the treaty to turn out to vote to “ensure such potential dangers are avoided."

The more voters, the merrier - for the pro-Nice lobby

All leading political parties, business groups and labor organizations see a big turnout as critical, with a turnout of 45 percent or more generally thought to favor a "yes" outcome.

There are 2.9 million registered voters in Ireland, and last time only a third of them turned out, with 54 percent voting against the treaty.

“There's no stop until we get a 'yes' vote," said Suzanne Coogan, press officer for the ruling Fianna Fail party.

This time, the "No" campaigners, a bizarre alliance of pacifists, socialists, nationalists and right-wing eurosceptics, have found it hard to match the money and energy of the pro-treaty lobby. But opinion polls put the number of voters who are still undecided at between 19 and 31 percent.

An Irish alternative to the opinion poll

But perhaps the opinion polls aren’t the only political barometer in Ireland.

EU Enlargement Commissioner Guenter Verheugen, visiting one of the applicant countries on Friday, told the Times of Malta he was confident the Irish would vote for the treaty.

“Ireland is a country where people like to bet on important events and therefore bookmakers in Ireland are a very reliable source of information,” he said. “The latest news I have got from Dublin is that the odds are nine to four in favour. This is very positive.”

But staff at bookmakers Paddy Powers are not so complacent. The odds, they say, were much the same last time.