Danish elections threaten Rasmussen's grip on power

Denmark’s parliamentary and local elections on Tuesday look likely to oust the country’s centre-left government.

The popularity of opposition groups, including one far-right anti-foreigner party, has surged in the run-up to election day.

Opinion polls meanwhile show support fading for Prime Minister Poul Nyrup Rasmussen and his coalition of Social Democrats and Social Liberals.

The quick shift of opinion appears to have caught the prime minister and his allies off guard. Nyrup Rasmussen, 58, was riding high in the polls when he called for the election three weeks ago.

But his government then faced an onslaught of criticism from opposition campaigners, who criticized the ruling coalition’s leniency regarding immigration and social welfare for foreign residents. It’s a minor issue for Denmark, economically, but politically it’s proved a rough one for the prime minister.

Fewer than 5 per cent of Denmark’s population of 5.3 million are foreign, and they take just a small portion of the welfare purse. But the popular perception among Danes that foreigners receive a disproportionate share of state benefits has opened the door to the opposition.

The leading opposition candidate is Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a former tax and economy minister who shares the prime minister’s last name but not his politics.

Fogh Rasmussen, 48, and his Liberal Party promise to pass “stricter laws, so that fewer foreigners come to Denmark.”

Pre-election polls have indicated that the Liberals could take a third of the vote, enough to put them in a position to form a coalition government.

But with whom? If Fogh Rasmussen shows well at the polls, he may find himself turning to centrists or even the moderate left for parliamentary support.

Fractious right

To the right of the Liberals, the Dansk Folkeparti (Danish People’s Party) offers voters a more virulent right-wing vision – downright xenophobic, detractors say, and the party’s detractors are many.

Reassuring moderate voters, Fogh Rasmussen said he will not consider forming a governing coalition with the far right.

But the Folkeparti could hold a valuable share of parliamentary seats.

It expects to win about 10 per cent of Tuesday’s ballots, and the prime minister has warned of “a terrible risk that Denmark will be ruled by the far right after the election.”

The Folkeparti has run on a promise to halt admission of refugees. Its candidates have adopted a baldly anti-Muslim tone, as well, playing on public fears that have simmered since the terrorist attacks in the United States in September.

Keeping it Danish

Much as Nyrup Rasmussen’s supporters have blamed September 11 for the latest anti-foreign sentiment, it is related to older trends in Danish politics.

In a previous blow to the prime minister, the country narrowly voted against adopting the Euro just 14 months ago. It was a big victory for nationalists.

Nyrup Rasmussen had campaigned hard for Denmark to join the Euro-zone, but was outdone by opposition forces campaigning to preserve the national currency, the Krone.

The currency vote was a purely symbolic loss for the government. The Krone was already pegged to the Euro, and remains so today.

But a loss for Nyrup Rasmussen this time around would be no mere symbol.

He has been in office longer than any other European premier but this time may have trouble hanging on.