Germany Still on the Fence in Possible Iraq Attack

German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer have repeatedly made it clear that Berlin's center-left coalition government will not participate in a U.S.-led attack on Iraq. But Washington continues to put pressure on its European allies. Only Britain has said it will support such a move.

From a military perspective, Germany says its capabilities are exhausted. Peacekeeping troops are stationed in the Balkans and Germany is assisting operations in Afghanistan, the latter marking the first deployment for combat operations outside of Europe since 1945.

Although this may be the case, the nation's political relevance in NATO and as a U.S. ally cannot be ignored.

In an interview with DW-WORLD, Dr. Jochen Hippler from the Institute for Development and Peace at the University of Duisburg suggests that Germany ultimately will be part of the war against Iraq, even without combat troops.

What are the political implications of Germany's possible involvement in a U.S.-led attack on Iraq?

With federal elections approaching in September, the German government is interested in lying low. Chancellor Schröder and Foreign Minister Fischer know that praising an adventure in Iraq would not be beneficial for their election campaign.

On the other hand, the government does not want to make any public statements that could be picked up by the opposition as anti-American. Any sort of remarks against President Bush could make the opposition candidate Edmund Stoiber look like the real transatlantic friend. So it's a fine line they're walking with respect to domestic policy.

But does Germany really have a choice, considering its powerful position in Europe?

Foreign policy is another matter. From this point of view, Germany will take part, no matter how absurd the government finds an assault on Iraq. Decisions on these types of military deployment are based on alliances. They are a signal to Germany's western allies. It also has significance for transatlantic relations, as it's important to stay on the good side of the world's most powerful nation.

You say it's a fine line for Germany to walk on in an election year. What if we see a change in government in September, with a possible coalition of the conservative Christian Democrats CDU, their Bavarian sister party CSU and the Free Democrats FDP? Will that have an impact on German involvement in Iraq?

I don't think it will make such a difference in this case. Germany will participate in an assault against Iraq, whether the CDU/FDP or the current government is in power. But, in my opinion, it will certainly not involve active participation of German combat troops.

There are, though, many other ways Germany could support the attack on Iraq, too. Germany has stationed troops in Kuwait, employing ABC tanks for assisting in the detection of chemical and biological weapons. These could support U.S. soldiers, for example. Or, if U.S. warships pull out of the Mediterranean into the Persian Gulf, German vessels could replace their positions.

But even providing U.S. troops with military bases in Germany is also – legally speaking – participating in a war. And Germany would never refuse this service, no matter if the government sees the war on Iraq as right or wrong.

No timetable has been set for military action, yet. Some members of U.S. Congress, including conservative Republicans, are beginning to urge President Bush to explain his reasoning and goals before committing American forces to topple a foreign government that has not attacked the U.S. The same holds true for its European allies. How can the public be convinced that Saddam Hussein poses an intolerable threat to the U.S. and its allies?

I don't think there will be any action until next spring. There certainly needs to be a better political pretense and diplomatic preparation is still necessary. The argument that Iraq is producing weapons of mass destruction is an absurd argument for a war.

I am certain that at some point some sort of connection will materialize showing Saddam Hussein as the "little brother" of Osama Bin Laden. Such documents will, of course, not be made public. And whether they are even true is a different matter. But by the time that is clarified, five years will have passed and the war would be over by then, anyway. Such a development would make it easier for the German government to say: yes, we are going to be part of this. A direct connection between Saddam Hussein and terrorism makes it easier to rally emotional support.