On a collision course

The governor of Okinawa Prefecture, Takeshi Onaga, has announced that he will rescind permission that was granted by his predecessor to carry out reclamation and construction work off the north-east coast of the island for the expansion of a US Marine Corps base, further delaying a project that should have been completed a decade ago.

The uncompromising stance of Onaga - elected in a landslide victory in November after campaigning almost exclusively on a manifesto of opposition to the large US military presence in the prefecture - is frustrating the national governments in both Tokyo and Washington and has interfered with the Pentagon's realignment of its troops throughout the Asia-Pacific region.

Ultimately, however, analysts say that the national government in Tokyo will turn to the courts to win the argument and push ahead with the development work at the US Marine Corps' Camp Schwab, close to the town of Henoko.

The danger is that by doing so, and even potentially suspending the governor's powers, the government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is seen as being overly high-handed, which could alienate even more local residents than are already opposed to the US military presence in the islands. And that, some say, could fuel further demands for independence from Tokyo in a nascent Okinawan nationalist movement.

Message to the government

"We believe the governor's actions have sent a strong message to the central government, that he will do everything in his power to prevent the construction of a larger base at Camp Schwab," Yasukatsu Matsushima, a professor at Ryukoku University in Kyoto, told DW.

"He has made clear his intention to cancel the previous plan and the people of Okinawa are very pleased about that," said Matsushima, who is the co-founder of an association dedicated to winning independence for an archipelago that - until annexation by Japan in March 1879 - had been an independent kingdom known as the Ryukyus.

"Our organization only has around 400 members at the moment, but the recent actions of the government in Tokyo have significantly increased interest in what we do and our calls for independence," Prof Matsushima said.

Hampering the 'pivot'

As well as being divisive, the debate over the relocation of the US military personnel in Okinawa has been prolonged by the governor's move.

The plan was to shift several thousand of the troops from the US Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station out of the congested town of Ginowan, in central Okinawa, to other bases in the region, including around 8,000 personnel to the Pacific island of Guam.

Others were to be redeployed to northern Australia and South Korea, although the remainder would move to an enlarged Camp Schwab. Built on the coast, the base at present has insufficient air capability and the plan calls for reclamation work off the coast and the construction of two runways in a V-shaped configuration.

But the repeated delays in implementing the relocation plan also mean that Washington has been hampered in its "Pacific pivot," the policy of refocusing attention in everything from trade, diplomacy and closer cultural ties away from the Atlantic and towards the Pacific.

The most critical part of the policy, however, is the bolstering of Washington's military commitment to the region. At present, the US Navy operates a 50-50 split between its capabilities in the Atlantic and the Pacific; by 2020, fully 60 percent of the Pentagon's assets are projected to be in the Pacific.

Controversial base

The plan has been controversial from the outset, with local residents strongly opposed to a massive influx of US troops with little in the town of Henoko to entertain them. Other concerns include the inevitable increase in noise pollution from flight operations, particularly at night.

Environmental groups have attempted to intervene in the dispute by pointing out that the reclamation work would destroy a protected coral reef and the feeding grounds of endangered dugongs.

Governor Onaga and the residents who voted for him say Okinawa shoulders too much of the burden of US troops stationed in Japan and that the functions of Futenma should be moved to mainland Japan.

The collapse of the most recent attempt to thrash out a compromise agreement between Tokyo and Okinawa has prompted the governor's decision to withdraw permission for more work at the Camp Schwab site; although the national government has made it clear it intends to forge ahead with the development.

"The government has already indicated that it will contest the governor's decision to rescind permission and the next stage will be the courts," said Jun Okumura, a visiting scholar at the Meiji Institute for Global Affairs.

Anticipated backlash

Legally, the national government is ultimately able to step in to effectively take over the powers of the elected governor, Okumura pointed out. Tokyo has so far resisted the temptation to do that as it will inevitably trigger a backlash and accusations of undermining an elected local authority, but it may be the government's only option, the expert noted.

"I see no possibility of compromise that would be acceptable to either side," said Okumura. "The administration of PM Abe has too much riding on this - not least the defense arrangement with the US - while the governor is showing no signs of backing down," he added.

And while Tokyo will come out of the skirmish on top, it will inevitably leave a bad taste in the mouths of Okinawans, say experts. They stress that the islanders already believe they are the most neglected part of the nation; and the issue of bases might just be enough to encourage them to reconsider their allegiance to the rest of Japan.