A victory for diplomacy

A ceremonial walk, a private dinner near the Forbidden City, and a meeting at the Great Hall of the People: the presidents of China and the United States engaged on their first formal talks in more than a year on the sidelines of the two-day APEC meeting in the Chinese capital Beijing, with US President Obama telling his Chinese counterpart that he wants to take the relationship to a new level. "When the US and China are able to work together effectively, the whole world benefits," Obama said.

As the US president closed his first visit to China in six years, both leaders unveiled a host of agreements on military cooperation, trade and climate change. The two nations are the world's biggest polluters and the new climate deal - which includes ambitious targets on greenhouse gas emissions - is being regarded as a potential breakthrough in decades-long efforts to secure a global climate change pact.

The two leaders had already aimed to establish closer personal ties when they met last year at the Sunnylands estate in California. But relations between the world's two largest economies had deteriorated due to disagreements over a host of issues ranging from human rights, trade, cyber security, and China's territorial claims in East and Southeast Asia.

Robert Daly, director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the US at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars, says in a DW interview that the latest meetings between Xi and Obama in Beijing have the potential to change the tone of bilateral relations. But while tone is important, the underlying dynamics that have caused the ties to decline over the past few years remain unchanged, he adds.

DW: There are a number of contentious issues between the US and China. What were the major achievements at the APEC Summit in terms of Sino-US ties?

Robert Daly: The APEC meetings surpassed my low expectations. The agreements to loosen visa regimes and eliminate tariffs on information technology products are potentially far-reaching. Both agreements, moreover, are fully reciprocal - neither is a gift from one side to the other - which bodes well for implementation and for the relationship generally.

While we don't yet know the details of the agreements on mechanisms for notification of major military activities in the Western Pacific and rules of behavior for encounters at sea and in the air, it appears that they will lower the likelihood for accidental conflict in the region- a great point won. The agreement to lower greenhouse gas emissions is potentially historic, but it appears that Republicans in the US Congress may not permit a treaty on climate change to go forward.

What impact are these deals expected to have on bilateral ties?

The APEC meetings have the potential to change the tone of US-China relations. That the two leaders spent five hours dining together was encouraging. But while the tone is important, the underlying dynamics that have caused bilateral relations to decline over the past few years are unchanged.

It was worrisome that, in his public performance of power at APEC, Xi Jinping seemed to play to a hardline domestic audience. He wore a calculated expression of disgust in his photo-op with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and his remarks in his press conference with President Obama made a poor impression on US journalists.

On the US side, the question is whether the Obama administration will treat the APEC meetings as a one-off success, or find a way to operationalize the tone and commitments set in Beijing. President Obama is yet to make the domestic case for a new China strategy, for the Rebalance to Asia, for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and for a climate accord.

Leaders of Asia-Pacific economies also agreed to begin work toward adopting a free-trade pact proposed by China. What would this impact negotiations on the US-backed TTP free trade deal?

They agreed to try to study the challenges to creating an Asia-Pacific free trade zone over a two-year period. That falls well short of agreeing to conduct a "feasibility study," which would provide a platform for preliminary negotiations.

It may be that this vague agreement will provide a boost to TPP negotiations and to TPP's prospects in the US Congress. China's recent activism in founding and promoting international institutions that it can direct may motivate the US and Japan to complete the TPP while it still has a chance of setting the standards for regional trade.

Obama was willing to spend much time with President Xi. What approach is the US following at the moment?

Both Obama and Xi got what they wanted from the APEC meetings. Xi wanted more and he got more in terms of enhanced domestic and regional prestige. Xi comes out of the summit looking more powerful domestically and slightly more flexible regionally.

After the Democrats' losses in the mid-term elections, the success of President Obama in Beijing could serve as a launching pad for a focus on foreign policy in his final two years, if that's what he wants to do. He has often been criticized for failing to develop a strategic response to China's rise. His team now has a chance to correct that.

Personal relations between Chinese and American leaders haven't been terribly important since the Nixon-Mao meetings in the 1970s, and the political cultures in which Xi and Obama operate make a meeting of the minds nearly impossible. Still, the more they get together, the better.

How did China profit from this summit?

Xi comes out of the summit looking more powerful domestically and slightly more flexible regionally.

Robert Daly is director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the US at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars.