150710 Syrien Außenpolitik

Kimanin shekaru goma kenan da aka naɗa Bashar Al-Asad domin ya gaji mahaifinsa marigayi shugaba Hafiz Al-Asad akan karagar mulkin ƙasar Siriya. To ko wace irin rawa ce ƙasar ta taka a fafutukar neman zaman lafiya a yankin Gabas Ta Tsakiya a ƙarƙashin shugabancinsa?

An daɗe dai ƙwararrun masana na famar tunani a game da rawar Siriya dangane da zaman lafiyar yankin Gabas Ta Tsakiya, ko shin tana zaman wata muhimmiyar kafa ce ta cimma zaman lafiya ko kuwa dai hana ruwa gudu take yi bisa manufa. A haƙiƙa dai dukkan batutuwan guda biyu na da nasaba da juna. Domin kuwa a sakamakon ƙaƙƙarfar dangantakar da take da shi da ƙasar Iran da Hizballah a Lebanon da kuma Hamas a Zirin Gaza gwamnatin Siriya na da tasiri da kuma ikon hana ruwa gudu ko ta wace fuska. Muhimmin abu shi ne yadda zata yi amfani da tasirinta. A wannan ɓangaren kuwa kusan ba wani banbanci tsakanin Bashar Al-Asad da mahaifinsa marigayi Hafez Al-Asad. Domin kuwa hatta a ƙarƙashin Bashar Al-Asad kafofin yaɗa labaran Siriya sun mayar da hankali ne kacokam akan adawa da Isra'ila, wadda suke dangantata da manufofi na tsokanar faɗa da taurin kai da mamaye. Amma a lokaci guda shugaban na Siriya kan fito da wasu saƙonnin dake yin nuni da sha'awarsa ta cimma sulhu a cikin ruwan sanyi da kyautata dangantakar ƙasarsa da ƙasashen yammaci. Hakan ta banbanta shi da sauran ƙawayensa Iran da Hizballah da kuma Hamas, waɗanda suke dagewa akan lalle sai an yi kaca-kaca da Isra'ila. A duk lokacin da shugaba Asad ke ƙalubalantar Isra'ila ya kan yi hakan ne a matsayin wani ɗan siyasa mai neman zaman lafiya, wanda Isra'ila ke fatali da shi. An lura da irin wannan take-taken lokacin da yake jawabi dangane da harin da sojojin Isra'ila suka kai kan jiragen ruwan taimako ga Gaza watan yunin da ya wuce, inda ya faɗa wa tashar BBC cewar:

"Wannan harin ya sanya murna ta koma ciki a game da duk wani fata na cimma zaman lafiyar yankin Gabas Ta Tsakiya. Kazalika harin ya nunar a fili cewar gwamnatin Isra'ila, gwamnati ce da ta dogara akan amfani da ƙarfin hatsi, wadda babu yadda za a yi a cimma zaman lafiya tare da ita."

Alal-haƙiƙa daidai da mahaifinsa, shi ma Basha Al-Asad yayi ƙoƙarin shiga shawarwarin zaman lafiya da Isra'ila a fakaice ta kan ƙasar Turkiyya. Amma an dakatar da maganar tun bayan yaƙin Gaza a shekara ta 2008. Kuma a halin yanzu babu wata alamar sake komawa waɗannan shawarwari sakamakon gurɓacewar yanayin dangantaka tsakanin Turkiyya da Isra'ila. Bisa ga ra'ayin ƙwararrun masana dai a'amura zasu canza ne idan Siriya ta ƙulla wata yarjejeniya ta zaman lafiya kai tsaye da Isra'ila. Amma a halin yanzu Siriyar na buƙatar Hizballah domin ci gaba da barazana akan Isra'ila a yayinda ita kuma Hizballah take amfani da Siriya don samun tallafi na kuɗi da makamai. Volker Perthes daga cibiyar nazarin manufofin siyasa da tsaro ta Jamus yayi bayani da cewar:

"Dukkan waɗannan al'amuran zasu canza idan Siriya ta ƙulla yarjejeniyar zaman lafiya da Isra'ila aka kuma mayar mata da yankinta da ake mamaya. Wannan maganar a fili kamar yadda kowa san hakan a Beirut da ma ita kanta Hizballah. Dangantakar Siriya da Hizballah zata canza saboda canjin manufofin tsaro da za a samu."

To sai dai kuma a halin yanzu babu wata alamar dake nuna cewar za a cimma irin wannan manufa.

Mawallafa: Rainer Sollich / Ahmed Tijani Lawal

Edita: Mohammad Nasiru Awal