政治
波罗的海北溪输气项目对中国的影响
俄罗斯与德国酝酿多年的"北溪(Nord Stream)"波罗的海海底输气管道项目，4月9日正式动工。至此，欧洲和俄罗斯就获得西伯利亚天然气资源的战略计划，得以初步实现。如果加上目前正在议论当中的"南溪"线和跨越中亚地区的纳布科线，俄罗斯向欧洲输送天然气的规模，就足以形成对其东面邻居中国在能源政策上的压力。
北溪工程：西伯利亚天然气输往欧洲的初步战略
中国与欧洲争夺西比利亚油气
长达一千余公里的北溪项目，建成后按计划每年会直接向欧洲腹地提供400亿立方米天然气。虽然这和中国与中亚的土库曼斯坦最近动工建设的输气管线规模相当，但在德国波恩大学政治学系能源问题专家马克西米莲·迈尔(Maximiliam Mayer)看来，重要的是德国与俄罗斯通过"北溪项目"动工所发出的地缘政治信号："如果我们把三条从俄罗斯到欧洲的输气管总输送能力加起来，每年供气量在一千亿立方米。当然这还取决于这三个项目中，哪个能真正动工完成。现在动手的，只有北溪一条线，而穿越巴尔干的南溪和纳布科线还在谈判之中。"
从叶利钦时代开始，欧洲与中国之间就展开了西伯利亚油气争夺战。据迈尔先生介绍：俄罗斯90%的天然气供应欧洲，外加70%的石油。双方供需依赖程度已经无以复加。而中国争取俄国远东石油管线所谓安大线的努力失败以后，不断受到来自莫斯科的要价压力。
北溪管线示意图
现在，穿越波罗的海海底的北溪线开工，将意味着俄罗斯远东天然气的一块份额，在未来十数年内归属了欧洲，留下给中国的份额相对减少。
“能源蛋糕”到底还有多大？
2009年，中国战略学界也曾对此发出过警告。但迈尔先生认为：目前欧洲与中国在欧亚大陆油气资源上的角逐，正方兴未艾，到底天平倒向哪一方，要受国际地缘政治多方因素的牵制："毫无疑问，现在北溪开工，意味着欧亚大陆资源分配版图将大幅度发生变化，这是因为如此规模巨大的输气输油管线，十数年乃至数十年内，会事实上促成彼此依赖的能源供需关系。纵观欧亚大陆整个能源版图，值得关注的新变化是在俄罗斯，伊朗，土库曼斯坦与中国之间正在建设的巨大的输气管网。这些巨型项目会使欧洲能源项目比如纳布科相形见绌。未来有可能出现的问题是：还会不会有那么多的天然气，可以用来填充这么多的输气管线。"
换言之，一旦欧洲能源局雄心勃勃的天然气规划得以实现，欧洲可以利用总共三条供气管线，把欧亚大陆大部分天然气，以长期供气合同的方式引到欧洲。东面的中国就不能不警惕自己能够拿到的"能源蛋糕"，到底还能有多大，得到这份'蛋糕"的代价会有多高。
这样的地缘能源竞争，在迈尔先生看来，不但现在已经形成对中国的压力，而且这个压力还不仅仅来自急需俄罗斯天然气的欧洲，还来自供应天然气给欧洲的俄罗斯自身："比方说价格问题。你可以观察一下中国和土库曼斯坦就长期供气举行的价格谈判，这个谈判还没有结束，俄罗斯就在两周以前，和土库曼斯坦最大的国有天然气公司签订了协议，其中供气成交价格比中国人现在正谈判的价格还要高很多。"
作者：一通
责编：叶宣
![DIESES FOTO WIRD VON DER RUSSISCHEN STAATSAGENTUR TASS ZUR VERFÜGUNG GESTELLT. [RUSSIA, IRKUTSK REGION - DECEMBER 17, 2022: A view of the Kovykta gas condensate field put into operation during a ceremony with Russia's President Putin and Gazprom Management Committee Chairman Miller participating online. Estimated 1,8trn and 65,7m cbm of gas and condensate reserves, Kovykta ranks one of the unique of its kind. Power of Siberia is the largest gas transmission system in the east of Russia that supplies gas from Irkutsk Regon and Yakutia to domestic consumers as well as to China. Gazprom/TASS]](https://static.dw.com/image/67798485_301.webp "DIESES FOTO WIRD VON DER RUSSISCHEN STAATSAGENTUR TASS ZUR VERFÜGUNG GESTELLT. [RUSSIA, IRKUTSK REGION - DECEMBER 17, 2022: A view of the Kovykta gas condensate field put into operation during a ceremony with Russia's President Putin and Gazprom Management Committee Chairman Miller participating online. Estimated 1,8trn and 65,7m cbm of gas and condensate reserves, Kovykta ranks one of the unique of its kind. Power of Siberia is the largest gas transmission system in the east of Russia that supplies gas from Irkutsk Regon and Yakutia to domestic consumers as well as to China. Gazprom/TASS]")
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DIESES FOTO WIRD VON DER RUSSISCHEN STAATSAGENTUR TASS ZUR VERFÜGUNG GESTELLT. [CHINA, BEIJING - OCTOBER 18, 2023: Russia's President Vladimir Putin (L) and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping shake hands during a meeting at the Great Hall of the People. Sergei Guneyev/POOL/TASS]
Mitte:
WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 30: U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the federal government's response to Hurricane Ian in the Roosevelt Room at the White House on September 30, 2022 in Washington, DC. The hurricane made landfall at Cayo Costa, Florida, on Wednesday as a Category 4 storm and caused 18 confirmed deaths in Florida so far. Biden concluded his remarks by addressing Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying, the recent referendum in eastern Ukraine was a sham and Mr. Putin, don't misunderstand what I'm saying. . . . the U.S. is prepared to defend every single inch of NATO territory. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Rechts:
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during a press conference following the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, China, October 18, 2023. Sputnik/Sergei Guneev/Pool via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY.](https://static.dw.com/image/67151748_301.webp "Links:
DIESES FOTO WIRD VON DER RUSSISCHEN STAATSAGENTUR TASS ZUR VERFÜGUNG GESTELLT. [CHINA, BEIJING - OCTOBER 18, 2023: Russia's President Vladimir Putin (L) and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping shake hands during a meeting at the Great Hall of the People. Sergei Guneyev/POOL/TASS]
Mitte:
WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 30: U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the federal government's response to Hurricane Ian in the Roosevelt Room at the White House on September 30, 2022 in Washington, DC. The hurricane made landfall at Cayo Costa, Florida, on Wednesday as a Category 4 storm and caused 18 confirmed deaths in Florida so far. Biden concluded his remarks by addressing Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying, the recent referendum in eastern Ukraine was a sham and Mr. Putin, don't misunderstand what I'm saying. . . . the U.S. is prepared to defend every single inch of NATO territory. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Rechts:
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during a press conference following the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, China, October 18, 2023. Sputnik/Sergei Guneev/Pool via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY.")
