EU says inspectors, not announcements, determine next steps in Iran standoff

Facing threats from Washington and Tehran, the European Union keeps calm and claims the middle ground when it comes to the Iran nuclear deal. Despite a tight deadline, many say there's time for a diplomatic solution.

It ain't easy being Brussels, the broker and bodyguard of the  beleaguered Iran nuclear deal that US President Donald Trump wants dead.
In an effort to not just depart from but destroy the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Washington has been threatening to sue European companies if they do business with Iran as allowed under the agreement. Iran is threatening to beef up nuclear enrichment activities in 60 days if they don't.

Don't expect any bureaucratic dramatics from the EU based on these threats. "While we do not accept any ultimatum," said a senior EU official speaking on condition of anonymity, "Iran's announcements are not a violation or a withdrawal of the nuclear deal. We will continue to abide by our commitment as long as Iran does."

Read more: Iran nuclear-deal crisis: Is war with the US ahead? 

Now live
01:36 mins.
DW News | 08.05.2019

Iran levels ultimatum at remaining signatories of nuclear ...

Can Europe meet Tehran's expectations?

Whether and how far Iran is planning to push that envelope will only be learned through the regular monitoring of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose next report is due in a couple of weeks. The last 14 assessments have given Iran a thumbs-up.

But with US sanctions threatening at every turn, it's unclear whether Europe — or the other partners, China and Russia — will be able to increase trade with Iran enough to satisfy the regime. And what happens then?

Ellie Geranmayeh with the European Council on Foreign Relations told DW she doesn't think the deal is in its mortal throes yet because it's not in anyone's interest to let it fall apart. Geranmayeh was an adviser to European governments and companies during the negotiations on the agreement. She said she sees this move by Iran as "pressure escalation, a warning shot while not violating the deal in a significant way."

Iran feels it has complied fully but not won the economic benefits it was assured, Geranmayeh explained. "[Tehran is] hoping that the minimum the Europeans can do is operationalize the INSTEX mechanism" designed to allow payments for goods without triggering US sanctions. That process has been underway for a year and is nearly — but not yet — operational, officials say.

Iran is threatening to renege on some aspects of the nuclear deal it signed in 2015 curbing its work that was feared to be leading toward a nuclear weapon

At the same time, Geranmayeh acknowledged, the deadline given by Tehran is problematic because there's the risk if it's not met, Iran will have to follow through. The EU can't let Iran re-energize its nuclear capabilities, she said, so "at some point [Iran] will hit the red lines of the Europeans if this continues."

On the other hand, she suggested, the high-stakes gamble may be aimed at building up leverage to eventually have direct negotiations with the United States.

Read more: US military flare-up 'would be a godsend to Iran hardliners'

Stuck in the middle with EU

The EU, meanwhile, is in a "terrible spot," according to Jon Wolfsthal, a nonproliferation expert who served in the Obama administration, and he primarily blames the US for that.

"[T]his is a situation that none of us need to or should be in," he insisted. "The Iran nuclear deal was working: Iran was complying with its terms, the Europeans were implementing it and the US was implementing it."

But the Trump administration argued the agreement let Tehran off too easily on nuclear controls and that it should also curtail other Iranian behavior as well, such as ballistic missile development and support for proxy groups hostile to the US in the Middle East. After pulling the US out exactly a year ago, the US administration continues to do everything possible to break up the other five signatories, Britain, France and Germany, plus China and Russia.

"He doesn't have a solution for how to get to a better deal but is now going to squeeze the Iranian regime as much as he can and put the Europeans in the middle," Wolfsthal said, describing the behavior as nothing more sophisticated than "Hulk smash!"

Wolfsthal said the administration's aims were being thwarted by its own decisions.

"There are some European countries that, because of the lack of goodwill left with the United States, are going to openly side with Iran," he predicted, "which is not a situation the United States wants to be in."

Now live
00:26 mins.
DW News | 08.05.2019

Germany's defense minister: 'We have to do all we can to k...

Europe to US: Come back

Along those lines, the same day Iran made its announcements, an open letter from directors of 18 European think tanks was released that appeals to the US to rejoin the agreement.

"JCPOA supporters across the world should increase coordination to make sure that US sanctions do not hamper the economic stability and technical nuclear cooperation Iran needs to comply with the deal," the letter states. "Most importantly, JCPOA supporters in Europe and elsewhere should re-articulate the merits of the agreement to various US audiences – in the administration, Congress, the expert community and media – so it is clear that the only way to reap the full benefits of the JCPOA and build upon it is for the US to rejoin it."

Axel Hellman, a policy fellow at the European Leadership Network, which helped coordinate the joint message over the last month, said while the Iranians had not taken the most dramatic course they could have, it's still a potentially dangerous move.

"In Washington, a lot of people will point to this and say, 'Well, this is what we said all along, this is a bad deal, you can't trust the Iranians, we need to take action,'" Hellman said.

It's more unclear how it will play in Europe, he said. "So definitely the risk has gone up, but there is still time for diplomatic solutions."

That is, as long as Tehran toes the line on nuclear activity. Before Iran's 60-day deadline will come the IAEA report, and if it shows violations, the senior EU official assured, "we would react."

Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

The deal breaker

President Donald Trump announced on May 8, 2018 that he was pulling the United States out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, arguing that the international accord was not in America's "national interest." The decision threw a cloud of uncertainty over the future of the nuclear accord and raised tensions with US allies in Europe.

Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

Slap in the face

Britain, France and Germany lobbied the Trump administration and Congress to remain in the nuclear accord, arguing that the deal was working and a US violation without a follow up plan would be destabilizing. In European capitals, the Trump administration's withdrawal was viewed as a slap in the face of allies.

Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

Iran scrap 'voluntary commitments'

A year to the day after Trump's announcement, Iran informed the other signatories of the accord that they would no longer adhere to certain "voluntary commitments." Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said the signatory nations had 60 days to implement promises to protect Iran's oil and banking sectors or Iran would resume the enrichment of uranium.

Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

Response to US pressure

The decision came after the United States deployed an aircraft, the USS Lincoln, along with a bomber task force to the Middle East. Washington said the deployment was intended as a "clear unmistakable message." Iran said it took action because the European Union and others "did not have the power to resist US pressure."

Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

A triumph of diplomacy

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), better known as the Iran nuclear deal, was signed in 2015 by United States, China, Russia, France, Germany and Britain (P5+1) and Iran following years of negotiations. Under the international agreement, Iran agreed to dismantle its nuclear program and be subject to monitoring in exchange for the lifting of international nuclear related sanctions.

Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

Compliance and verification

The JCPOA includes a robust monitoring, verification and inspection regime carried out by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The UN watch dog has verified Iran's compliance with the deal in 12 quarterly reports. The JCPOA allows Iran to pursue a peaceful nuclear program for commercial, medical and industrial purposes in line with international non-proliferation standards.

Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

Obama's achievement

The Iran nuclear deal was President Barack Obama's signature foreign policy achievement. Seeking to undo nearly every Obama administration legacy, Trump came into office calling it the "worst deal ever." The Trump administration argues the nuclear deal doesn't address other unrelated issues such as Iran's ballistic missiles, regional influence, support for "terrorist" groups and human rights.

Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

Iranians approved

The nuclear deal and lifting of punishing nuclear related international sanctions created optimism in Iran after years of economic isolation. However, even before Trump pulled the US out of the deal, Tehran blamed the US for holding back international investment and not fulfilling its end of the bargain due to the uncertainty created by Trump's threats.

Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

The opponents

After eight years with Barack Obama, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu found the US president he wanted in Donald Trump. The Israeli leader repeatedly slammed the deal despite his own military and intelligence chiefs' assessment the that JCPOA, while not perfect, was working and should be maintained. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the other main opponents of the nuclear deal.

Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat

Who's left?

The EU-3 (Britain, France, Germany) have scrambled to ensure that Iran receives the economic benefits it was promised in order to avoid Tehran pulling out of the deal. As EU businesses face retaliation from the US for doing business with Iran, many are opting to avoid Iran. This would likely be a present to Chinese and Russian businesses.

Every evening at 1830 UTC, DW's editors send out a selection of the day's hard news and quality feature journalism. You can sign up to receive it directly here.