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Opinion: No cause to relax

Kommentarbild Börsenreporter Olaf Krieger
Olaf Krieger
November 10, 2016

Donald Trump's victory in the US election came as a shock to much of the world. It's a bitter outcome for both the US as well as the international community, believes DW's Olaf Krieger from the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

https://p.dw.com/p/2SW2S
US-Präsidentschaftswahl 2016 - Sieg Donald Trump
Image: Reuters/M. Segar

In terms of economic policy, Donald Trump remained vague during the presidential election campaign, just like on many other subjects. One statement that struck me most was his vow to pull off "Brexit times five" at the ballot box.    

During the campaign, the world saw Trump only as an incendiary and thin-skinned narcissist. And if the damage caused by his winning the White House would be limited to the scale of a "Brexit times two," that could already mean a 20 percent drop across the world's financial markets. 

Although markets worldwide have recovered after recording sharp and widespread falls following the Trump victory, it should be noted that it's just the start of a period of extreme market volatility. 

With a US president who has no qualms about burning capital, among other things, investors will not be able to plan anything. Furthermore, Trump's political ideas are, sometimes, confounding. His core electoral pledge was to "make America great again." And he said he planned to do that through protectionist economic policies and by isolating the US from globalization.     

Börsenreporter Olaf Krieger
DW business correspondent Olaf KriegerImage: Privat

Should Trump really manage to implement his pronouncements on the campaign trail, I am afraid, growth and prosperity worldwide will suffer. And there will be new customs barriers and trade wars, which will harm everyone - including the people of the United States. 

A word about the loser of the election:  Hillary Clinton. Had she won the vote, there wouldn't have been much to cheer either. Both Trump and Clinton were unsuitable for the top job and their candidacies were extremely polarizing. And that led to this disastrous outcome, which is celebrated worldwide by autocrats and populists, whose fortunes have been on the upswing in recent times.

It's high time the mainstream political class and the media in Europe and North America reflect about what went wrong and scrutinize the reasons behind the widespread disenchantment and distrust of them among disaffected segments of the population.

What is going wrong with regard to the interaction between the so-called elites and the ordinary public?

It's perhaps time to be prudent, and adjust to the new situation. Donald Trump, too, will have to adjust to his new role and the enormous responsibility it entails. And that is a must to ensure that the world's largest and most important economy does not fall behind.

The fact that being a presidential candidate is not the same as actually being president, offers us hope. And now Trump has to deliver.

After digesting the surprising results, I hope all of those in responsible positions will sober up and help minimize the potential negative consequences resulting from this outcome.

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