Sudan polls

Sudan's elections have been billed as the first multi-party polls since 1986. But only minor opposition parties will be standing against President Omar al-Bashir and his party in the north.

This after the Umma Party's pull-out and the announcement by the Sudanese People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) - the main political force in Southern Sudan - that it would only contest the south.

The boycott, which comes after allegations of vote rigging, means al-Bashir, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of genocide, is almost certain to win the presidential poll.

Along with al-Bashir's political opponents, international and local rights groups have also heavily criticized the electoral process. The announcement earlier this week by EU election observers that they would not observe the vote in volatile Dafur has dealt another blow.

An exercise in flawed democracy

Nonetheless, some Sudanese believe it is important that the vote goes ahead nonetheless. From Sunday onwards, the population will have three days' time to cast their ballot in parliamentary, presidential, regional and gubernatorial polls.

Reverend Ramadan Chan Liol, head of the Sudan Council of Churches, described the elections as "historic." The national church leader has been preoccupied with the topic for months, as churches will be sending observers to polling offices and have been involved in awareness-raising campaigns in many parishes.

"Well, at least it will give those people who have never voted an idea of how it is supposed to go. It will demonstrate how democratic elections function - even if it will not be very democratic," Chan Liol told Deutsche Welle.

First time voters

Most Sudanese have never stood before a ballot box in their life or held a ballot paper in their hand. These are the first elections in 24 years after a protracted and bloody civil war between rebels from the mainly Christian south and government troops from the mainly Muslim north.

Five years ago, a peace deal between Khartoum and the southern rebels promised to end a generation of conflict that cost 1.5 million lives. This weekend's elections are a key part of that agreement.

But despite the deal, the situation in the South is far from calm where there has been an escalation of inter-ethnic clashes.

Unrest in Darfur

And a continuing conflict in the western region of Darfur means that many people there are either unable or unwilling to take part in the electoral process. Safety fears have forced the EU to withdraw its election observers from the western region - just days before voting is due to start.

The fighting between diverse rebel groups, Janjaweed militiamen and the Sudanese army has displaced an estimated 2.7 million people and caused the deaths of another 300,000.

"We are not in a situation in which the population of Darfur can take part in these elections. In addition many people in the refugee camps have refused to add their names to the electoral registers. Because for them that would be tantamount to accepting the refugee camp as their home. They come from villages destroyed by the Janjaweed militia and the Sudanese army," said Jacky Marmour, from the organization Together for Darfur.

In other cases, human rights groups say the authorities have deliberately omitted people from the electoral rolls because the government suspect that they are likely to vote for the opposition after years of conflict.

The International Crisis Group think tank said Darfur had been so manipulated that the territory could swing the national vote and secure a win for Bashir's National Congress Party (NCP) in the parliamentary elections.

"Winning big in Darfur is central to the NCP's plan to capture enough votes in the North to ensure its continued national dominance," an ICG report said.

Apparent vote rigging of this kind is one of the reasons for the major opposition parties' decision to boycott the poll. The opposition also accuses the government in Khartoum of arresting opposition supporters and detaining them without trial. There have also been other difficulties, according to Mou Thiik, Program Manager for Germany's Friedrich Ebert Foundation,

"There have been some laws that have not been ratified or not withdrawn, the public order law, for example, which actually can interfere with the fair conduct of the election itself. The press laws, the security laws there have not been rectified to the advantage of the public and the parties, and therefore the opposition parties are worried about how fair and free these elections are going to be," said Thiik.

Test run for January?

The United States has called on al-Bashir to briefly delay the elections until more stability can be ensured. After a closed-door briefing by the UN peacekeeping chief, Susan Rice, US Ambassador to the UN, told reporters that "much is awry" with the election process in Sudan. She described the trends on the ground as "very disturbing".

Observers believe that the international community's real priority is next January's referendum on possible independence for the south. With the chance of secession on the horizon, this could also explain, in part, the SPLM's willingness to restrict its electoral involvement even if it means letting al-Bashir win for now.

Author: Daniel Pelz (jg)
Editor: Rob Mudge