Will Stoiber Tumble?
January 16, 2007
The usual snow may be missing this year at the remote Bavarian resort of Wildbad Kreuth. But an icy wind is blowing at the closed retreat of the Christian Social Union (CSU) currently meeting there. The Bavarian sister party to Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is meeting in Kreuth to discuss the future of the CSU and, more importantly, its veteran state premier, Edmund Stoiber.
Stoiber is under mounting pressure to either resign or not seek re-election in 2008. The CSU has held an absolute majority in the Bavarian parliament for over 30 years. Yet support for the conservatives has dipped below 50 percent in state-wide opinion polls after it became known that his top aide had pried into the private life of CSU rival and staunch Stoiber critic Gabriele Pauli.
"The consensus in the party leadership is that he must go before Bavarian local elections in the spring of 2008," the Munich-based Süddeutsche Zeitung said in an editorial on Monday. "It's just that nobody wants to tell him this."
According to the opposition, it's time for a change.
"Bavaria deserves better than this," said Franz Maget, head of Bavaria's Social Democratic Party (SPD), who has called for immediate early elections. "That's why it's time for the premier to hand in his resignation."
But Stoiber put on a brave face as he arrived in Kreuth on Monday.
"I'm fighting for my goals, for Bavaria's success, and for the success of the CSU," Stoiber said.
The CDU in Berlin depends on Bavaria's CSU
The CSU holds a unique position in Germany's political landscape. Under a longtime power-sharing pact, the CSU confines itself to Bavaria and Merkel's CDU never seeks office inside the state.
The CSU is a party outside of the CDU's control, yet both make up a common group in the federal parliament. This means Merkel needs CSU support to push through her party's platform.
But Stoiber's recent opposition to government reform plans, in particular to the healthcare system, has hurt Merkel's popularity and the two have a strained relationship. Stoiber has also been a loud critic of Germany's federalism reform, which regulates Berlin's authority over the country's 16 states.
Many CDU allies have been angered by Stoiber's public criticism of Merkel while she was struggling to keep a coalition with the SPD on an even keel. Fears are growing in his own party that he would drag down CSU candidates at local polls, as well.
A Bavarian premier enjoys royal benefits
A state premier in Munich is all but a successor to the former kings of Bavaria, enjoying the use of royal palaces, dominating every aspect of administration and basking in the acclaim of the mainly Catholic population.
When Bavarian-born Pope Benedict XVI visited Bavaria in September 2006, Stoiber played host at the king's palace in Munich, posing his children and grandchildren with the pontiff for an official photo.
Stoiber has been running Bavaria -- one of Germany's most prosperous regions -- for almost 14 years. In 2002, he failed in his bid to become German chancellor, losing out to incumbent Gerhard Schröder in one of the narrowest votes in post-war history.
Then in 2005, he wavered over joining the new coalition government in Berlin as economics minister before opting to stay in Bavaria. Many critics interpreted this decision to be based on Stoiber's inability to operate as freely in the big city capital as he could in his "royal surroundings" in Munich.
The push for power is turning into a dirty fight
Although the CSU faction has yet to make an official decision on Stoiber, several leading party politicians have been named as possible successors. Bavaria's interior minister, Günther Beckstein, could become premier, with German Agriculture Minister Horst Seehofer as party chief. But rumors of Seehofer having an extramarital affair hit the German mass-circulation tabloid Bild on Monday, with a Tuesday report claiming his girlfriend was expecting a child.
Bild quoted an unnamed CSU functionary as its source. Now, politicians are asking who out of their own ranks would spread this rumor.
The speculations about Seehofer's private life are reminiscent of similar events back in 1993, when Stoiber was battling Bavaria's premier at the time, Theo Waigel. Stoiber was able to win, after Waigel's affair with the professional skier Irene Epple was leaked to the press. Waigel married Epple in 1994 and they have one son.