Why is N. Korea tightening ties with Russia?

Ostracized by the greater part of the international community, Russia and North Korea are working hard to improve bilateral ties and express support for each other's geopolitical ambitions in Ukraine and the Korean Peninsula.

This backing has reached the point that North Korea has reportedly offered to provide thousands of laborers to help rebuild Donetsk and Luhansk, the two self-proclaimed republics in eastern Ukraine that are presently largely occupied by Russian forces. There have also been suggestions that Pyongyang is considering sending 100,000 troops to the conflict. 

In the other direction, Russia joined China in vetoing a draft resolution in the United Nations Security Council on May 26 that would have ratcheted up sanctions on North Korea after a series of ballistic missile launches in the early months of the year. It was the first time since 2006 that the Security Council had been split on North Korean sanctions, with Moscow claiming the proposed new measure would be "irresponsible."

Russia shifts on sanctions

Moscow and Beijing — which have gravitated more closely toward each other since the invasion of Ukraine in February — went one step further in the Security Council by calling for the lifting of some of the sanctions imposed on Pyongyang for its nuclear weapons program and the development of long-range ballistic missiles.

Analysts suggest that both Russia and North Korea are desperate for foreign friends, as much of the rest of the world is oriented against their regimes. China, meanwhile, is teetering toward a similar position due to its aggressive land grabs in the South China Sea and its additional territorial demands against Taiwan, Japan, India and South Korea. 

"Russia and North Korea have a long history based on many shared political positions, but they are once again drawing closer because they have a shared, common enemy and they need each other to better resist the external pressures," said Rah Jong-yil, a former diplomat and head of South Korean intelligence charged with monitoring the North. 

The offer to send laborers to the Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine is "significant," he said, as it serves to reinforce Pyongyang's recognition of the self-declared governments of Donetsk and Luhansk. 

It would also potentially serve as a much-needed windfall for the North, as Alexander Matsegora, the Russian ambassador to Pyongyang, has been quoted in the Izvestia newspaper as saying that payment for the laborers would be in industrial equipment and wheat. 

North Korea is chronically short of both; international sanctions effectively ban imports of machinery to update its dilapidated factories and food shortages have become widespread.

North gives up on South

"It seems quite clear to me that North Korea has given up efforts to cultivate better relations with South Korea and the United States, and that means that it really only has Russia and China to rely on now," Rah told DW. "Given the situations that the governments in Moscow and Pyongyang find themselves in, then it has to be said that it was inevitable this would happen." 

Yakov Zinberg, a professor of international relations specializing in East Asian affairs at Tokyo's Kokushikan University, agreed that the two nations' shared histories and their need for allies when they are both under international pressure made them "natural partners."

"Lots of North Koreans studied at Russian universities in the past," said Zinberg, who is originally from St. Petersburg. 

"Now they see themselves as the 'victims' of these sanctions regimes, and they are looking for ways to get around those sanctions," he said. 

While there are clear benefits to an alliance, Zinberg is not convinced that Russia will accept North Korean offers of military support in Ukraine and may still tread warily in terms of moves in the Far East that would further antagonize other governments in the region. 

"My impression is that Moscow is still cautious about the Pacific region," he said. "They cannot afford to irritate countries like South Korea, Japan or the US, which has a large military presence in both those nations. 

Fear of a two-front conflict

"Russia has traditionally had a fear of a two-front confrontation," he emphasized. "They are heavily involved in Ukraine now, and that situation looks like it will continue for some time to come, so they will want to avoid any situation that means they have to transfer forces to the Far East."

Zinberg says that as a consequence, Moscow will continue to offer strong spoken support to North Korea if that is in Russia's interests and could potentially help focus US attention on northeast Asia instead of central Europe, but it will also be keen to communicate to Pyongyang that it cannot come to the North's assistance if it pushes too hard. 

"This is a very volatile part of the world — the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan, Chinese warships off southern Japan, the islands in the South China Sea — so Moscow will be hoping that things do not go too far," Zinberg said.

It seems inevitable, however, that tensions will continue to rise, he admitted. The former head of South Korea's military intelligence service on Monday stated that North Korea is expected to carry out what would be its seventh underground nuclear test immediately before the US midterm elections in November. 

Edited by: Leah Carter