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「史無前例,但危險」

2013年9月3日

隨著蔣潔敏被解職,前中共政治局常委周永康將成為下一隻反腐運動被打「老虎」似乎已勢在必行。德語媒體指出,打這樣的「大蟲」鮮有前例,並非沒有風險。

https://p.dw.com/p/19alA
Then China's Public Security Minister Zhou Yongkang reacts as he attends the Hebei delegation discussion sessions at the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China at the Great Hall of the People, in Beijing October 16, 2007. Few figures are as divisive in China as former domestic security tsar Zhou, reportedly under investigation by the ruling Communist Party for corruption. Even the once ambitious but now ousted politician Bo Xilai, whose trial on corruption ended on August 26, 2013, doesn't evoke the same depth of feeling that Zhou does. From the oil fields of frigid northeastern China, the hulking Zhou worked his way up to the elite Politburo Standing Committee, where his spending on domestic security exceeded the separate budgets for defence, healthcare or education. Picture taken October 16, 2007. To match story CHINA-POLITICS/ZHOU REUTERS/Jason Lee (CHINA - Tags: POLITICS CRIME LAW)
圖片來源: Reuters

(德國之聲中文網)從薄熙來案庭審、中石油4名高管被解職,到曾任中石油董事長的國務院發改委主任蔣潔敏落馬,無不顯示出,中共新領導層正以層層剝筍的方式,晾出源於石油系統的原政治局常委周永康,引起國內外廣泛關注。9月3日一期的《南德意志報》「政治」欄目上的一篇文章相信,以周永康的地位,他成為反腐對象,會比薄熙來案更驚心動魄,但隱含更大風險,一大原因是,即使是打大老虎,習近平似乎也有偏袒之嫌:

「數月前,習近平啟動反腐、反鋪張浪費運動,許諾人民,將『蒼蠅老虎一起打』。不過,權斗中的失敗者被官方以『腐敗罪』送上法庭,這在中國是普遍現象。

(FILES) In a file picture taken on March 5, 2012, Zhou Yongkang, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of CPC attends the opening session of the National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. A group of Communist Party elders has issued a daring open letter calling for the removal of China's top security official, amid political upheaval ahead of a once-a-decade leadership transition. The calls for the sacking of Zhou Yongkang, one of China's top nine leaders, are closely linked to the recent fall of Bo Xilai -- another high-ranking official -- which triggered the nation's biggest political scandal in decades. AFP PHOTO / LIU JIN / FILES (Photo credit should read LIU JIN/AFP/GettyImages)
周永康會否成為下一個「反腐」對象?圖片來源: AFP/Getty Images

「其他人沒有被觸及。例如,《紐約時報》去年年底曾證實,前總理溫家寶家族擁有相當於120億以上歐元的資產,而迄今沒有傳出關於對該家族進行調查的消息。

「對周永康展開調查的確會是史無前例:周2002年晉升進入中國權利的最核心—政治局常委會,當時還是9人制。自文革結束近40年來,中共大員中還沒有哪個來自這一核心的成員被動過一根毫毛。在這一職位上,不論是在任還是下朝,常委迄今享受著不受任何調查的豁免權。

Vice Chairman and President of PetroChina Company Limited Jiang Jiemin attends a news conference in Hong Kong in this March 19, 2007 file photo. China is investigating Jiang, head of the national assets regulator, for "serious discipline violation", state news agency Xinhua reported on September 1, 2013, in what would appear to be another step in Beijing's widening anti-graft campaign. To match Story CHINA-POLITICS/ REUTERS/Paul Yeung /Files (CHINA - Tags: BUSINESS HEADSHOT ENERGY)
蔣潔敏圖片來源: Reuters/Paul Yeung

「周何以成為對象?他曾是遭罷黜的薄熙來的密切盟友。有消息稱,直到薄被逮捕,周是最高領導層中唯一一個依然保薄的人。打周並非沒有風險:作為國安系統的長期領導人,他應該掌握著其他高官們的諸多秘密;作為石油業曾經的太上皇,他瞭解許多其他領導人的家族如何中飽私囊之內情。至於習近平覺得自己已足夠強大,能夠整肅周的手下人以至周本人,跟多人認為,這顯示,黨首的權力正進入下一輪調整期。……

「觀察家們預期,習近平為首的領導層在11月份召開的全會上將宣佈經濟和金融領域的改革舉措。最大的抗拒來自強勢的國有製造業。而對周陣營的每一個打擊都是對國有製造業陣營自動發出的一個警告訊號。不論是《南華早報》,還是《紐約時報》都援引黨內人士報導稱,最終是否對周永康展開調查,尚未定奪。也可能,最後,黨的領導層對曾達到削弱周的影響力這一步就滿意了」。

China's newly elected President and chairman of the Central Military Commission Xi Jinping (L) talks with China's Vice Premier Li Keqiang during the fourth plenary meeting of the first session of the 12th National People's Congress (NPC) in Beijing, March 14, 2013. REUTERS/China Daily (CHINA - Tags: POLITICS) CHINA OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN CHINA
習近平要求反腐圖片來源: Reuters

人民幣不能自由兌換又顯好處

《法蘭克福匯報》「經濟」欄目上的一篇文章分析作為全球第二大經濟體的中國何以又能以「中流砥柱」形象出現,在多數新興國家經濟目前紛紛呈現弱勢時,依然保持超過7%的經濟增長速度。文章作者直指人民幣仍不能自由兌換正是中國經濟目前幾乎又呈現「一枝獨秀」姿態的重要原因:

「為捍衛本國貨幣,各國紛紛出售硬通貨的部分儲備。根據金融通訊社彭博提供的數據,亞洲10個最富裕國家中有6個國家的央行今年以來減少了硬通貨儲備,其中,印尼減少最多,達18%,印度減少4%。相反,中國還增加了原已是全球最大的外匯儲備量2.5%。與此同時,人民幣同美元的匯率升高近2%。不過,人民幣不能自由兌換,中國央行每天確定參考匯率。這種形式的施加影響被認為是有問題的做法,因為,它違反市場法則,在世界市場上以不公平的方式損害競爭對手,並在進口方面削弱了中國人的購買力。然而,在動蕩時期,許多觀察家卻稱讚說,此類形式的國家影響好處多多。這一點也適用於對資本流通的管控。它使中國人難以在境外投資或接收資金,同時也限制外國投資人在中國購買股票、債券或不動產」。

A bank teller counts renminbi bank notes in Shenyang, northeast China 13 January 2010. The Chinese central bank, BOC (Peoples Bank of China) raised the deposit reserve requirement for 0.5 percentage points to be effective 18 January. This move is seen as a bid to tighten money supply after four times lowering rates since June 2008 in order to stimulate the economy. The move led to a 2.11 percentage drop in the benchmark Shanghai Composite stock index. EPA/MARK
圖片來源: picture-alliance/dpa

摘編:凝煉
責編:洪沙

[摘編自其它媒體,不代表德國之聲觀點]